2017 Fantasy Football: Week 6 Matchup Rankings, Defenses

2017 Fantasy Football: Week 6 Matchup Rankings, Defenses
Reminder: Before we get into the Week 6 matchup rankings – Fantasy Points Adjusted for Defense (FPAD) is a calculation that can be the difference between celebrating a win or cursing a high-scoring option on your bench. I developed it years ago, and it accounts for defensive quality of play by position, adjusts for game situations and strength of offenses and spits out an adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Using Fantasy Football Points allowed is valuable in itself to help make lineup decisions, but it’s imperfect, as a team facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should give up more points and passing yards than one facing Jared Goff and the Rams. This isn’t a tool to argue benching Mike Evans for Robert Woods, but it helps you decide which RB3 is a better play or which WR4 could put up a WR2 type week.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Matchup Rankings

QB Matchup Rankings

Rank Team Opp FPAD   Rank Team Opp FPAD
1 New York Jets NE 28.1 15 New York Giants DEN 15.0
2 Tennessee Titans IND 23.6 16 Oakland Raiders LAC 14.6
3 Indianapolis Colts TEN 22.9 17 Baltimore Ravens CHI 14.3
4 Arizona Cardinals TB 22.8 18 Minnesota Vikings GB 14.2
5 Houston Texans CLE 22.2 19 San Francisco 49ers WSH 14.0
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ARI 20.3 20 Miami Dolphins ATL 14.0
7 Detroit Lions NO 20.1 21 Jacksonville Jaguars LAR 13.6
8 Denver Broncos NYG 19.3 22 Atlanta Falcons MIA 13.5
9 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 19.1 23 New Orleans Saints DET 13.0
10 Washington Redskins SAF 18.6 24 Philadelphia Eagles CAR 12.4
11 Cleveland Browns HOU 18.4 25 Green Bay Packers MIN 12.2
12 Carolina Panthers PHI 17.3 26 Chicago Bears BAL 10.4
13 New England Patriots NYJ 17.3 27 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 8.0
14 Los Angeles Chargers OAK 17.1 28 Los Angeles Rams JAX 6.8

Jacoby Brissett vs. Brian Hoyer

Streaming quarterbacks is a bit tricky this week given the byes and matchups. Brissett was a solid option last week and remains one again in Week 6. Against the 49ers, Brissett threw for 314 yards, and while he didn’t throw for a touchdown, he did run for a score. Brissett isn’t Deshaun Watson on the ground, but he can scramble, adding to his potential. Speaking of potential, the Titans have the third highest FPAD for quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Watson both threw for four touchdowns against the Titans, and they have allowed at least one touchdown in every game, including the miserable Jay Cutler last week.

As for Hoyer, he’s had some streaming appeal with over 330 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams and Colts. People are going to see the Redskins and assume this is good streaming opportunity, especially with Josh Norman. Not so fast. The rest of the secondary is actually quite good. The Redskins have a modestly-low FPAD and have allowed just five touchdowns in four games while registering four interceptions. Alex Smith is skewing the FPPG allowed thanks to his 56 yards rushing and touchdown on the ground. Hoyer isn’t doing that and isn’t a good bet for a big game.

Also Good: Marcus Mariota – On the other side of the Brissett matchup, which is the second best one of the week… if he plays.

Also Bad: Jared Goff – A breakout season might still be possible, but a decent game against the Jaguars defense is not.

Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Josh McCown, Carson Palmer, Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford

RB Matchup Rankings

Rank Team Opp FPAD   Rank Team Opp FPAD
1 New York Jets NE 27.6 15 Indianapolis Colts TEN 19.9
2 Jacksonville Jaguars LAR 27.3 16 Baltimore Ravens CHI 18.1
3 New England Patriots NYJ 24.9 17 New Orleans Saints DET 14.3
4 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 24.4 18 Arizona Cardinals TB 14.3
5 Washington Redskins SAF 24.1 19 Houston Texans CLE 13.7
6 Oakland Raiders LAC 23.7 20 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 13.4
7 Denver Broncos NYG 22.9 21 San Francisco 49ers WSH 12.8
8 Los Angeles Rams JAX 22.7 22 Atlanta Falcons MIA 12.6
9 Miami Dolphins ATL 22.0 23 Philadelphia Eagles CAR 12.4
10 Tennessee Titans IND 21.9 24 Cleveland Browns HOU 12.0
11 Detroit Lions NO 21.6 25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ARI 11.9
12 Chicago Bears BAL 21.2 26 Carolina Panthers PHI 11.8
13 Minnesota Vikings GB 21.1 27 Green Bay Packers MIN 10.6
14 Los Angeles Chargers OAK 20.3 28 New York Giants DEN 8.1

Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson vs. Giants RBs

Rob Kelley is doubtful this week, which puts Perine in line to start with Thompson providing the passing game spark as usual. The 49ers are on the road, and the west to east coast swing is always tough on teams. Additionally, the 49ers are already weak against the run with the fifth highest FPAD and the third most receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Marlon Mack just ripped off 91 yards on nine carries last week, and Chris Carson had 93 rushing yards in Week 2 with Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey combining for 112 rushing, 55 receiving in Week 1.

week 6 matchup rankings

John Brown and the Cardinals WRs are set up for a big week. Photo Credit: AP Photo/Michael Perez

The Giants are in disarray, and it’s understandable after the Week 5 travesty. There is no coming back from that, and there is no hope trying to recover against the Broncos… in Denver. The Broncos used to be middle of the pack against the run and dominant against the pass. The script flipped this year, while the truth about the Giants offensive line has remained: it’s one of the worst run blocking units in the league. The Giants, whether it’s Gallman, Orleans Darkwa or anyone else, won’t be able to run on the Broncos, especially with no passing threat to soften the defense.

Also Good: Marshawn Lynch – Here’s hoping he can fall into the end zone again, but also sell high if he does have a good game.

Also Bad: Isaiah Crowell – Maybe Kevin Hogan can spark the offense and Crowell, but I’d prefer to wait it out on my bench if possible.

Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Leonard Fournette, Mike Gillislee, James White, Kareem Hunt, C.J. Anderson, Todd Gurley

WR Matchup Rankings

Rank Team Opp FPAD   Rank Team Opp FPAD
1 Arizona Cardinals TB 35.2 15 Cleveland Browns HOU 20.3
2 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 31.5 16 New Orleans Saints DET 19.7
3 Indianapolis Colts TEN 30.0 17 Philadelphia Eagles CAR 19.4
4 New York Jets NE 29.6 18 New England Patriots NYJ 19.2
5 Carolina Panthers PHI 29.5 19 Houston Texans CLE 18.3
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ARI 29.4 20 New York Giants DEN 18.2
7 Washington Redskins SAF 27.9 21 Atlanta Falcons MIA 17.8
8 Tennessee Titans IND 26.6 22 Miami Dolphins ATL 16.0
9 Oakland Raiders LAC 24.5 23 Jacksonville Jaguars LAR 14.7
10 Detroit Lions NO 23.8 24 Denver Broncos NYG 13.3
11 Minnesota Vikings GB 22.2 25 Chicago Bears BAL 13.2
12 Baltimore Ravens CHI 21.5 26 Los Angeles Rams JAX 11.2
13 Green Bay Packers MIN 20.4 27 San Francisco 49ers WSH 10.8
14 Los Angeles Chargers OAK 20.3 28 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 9.4

John Brown vs. Pierre Garcon

When 100 percent healthy, Brown is the Cardinals best receiver. Yes, even over Larry Fitzgerald. The problem is that Brown is never 100 percent, but he’s close and looked good last week. The Buccaneers are the worst team in FPAD for receivers, already allowing 10 receivers to top 50 yards, and they’ve only played four games. Those 10 receivers all hit double-digit scores in PPR, and both Fitzgerald and Brown can have big games together. In fact, don’t be surprised if Jaron Brown gets into the mix too.

As for Garcon, I’ve been a supporter all year, and people will clamor for the “revenge game” factor. However, let’s go back to Hoyer and the matchup. Even without Norman, the Redskins have more talent in their secondary than the 49ers do at receiver. Only one receiver has scored against the Redskins, and that was Nelson Agholor back in Week 1. On top of that, he’s also the only receiver to top 63 yards with Alshon Jeffery, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill all scoring 3.8 or less in Non-PPR (8.5 PPR).

Also Good: Devin Funchess – At some point, people will start buying in… only to see him finally have a bad game of course.

Also Bad: Tyreek Hill – The Steelers defense is up there with the Seahawks and Jaguars against the pass. Start him, but be ready for a quieter week.

Other Matchup Boosted WRs: T.Y. Hilton, Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson, Kelvin Benjamin, DeSean Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Rishard Matthews

TE Matchup Rankings

Rank Team Opp FPAD   Rank Team Opp FPAD
1 Denver Broncos NYG 17.7 15 Los Angeles Chargers OAK 6.6
2 San Francisco 49ers WSH 14.2 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ARI 6.6
3 New York Jets NE 11.6 17 Baltimore Ravens CHI 6.6
4 Houston Texans CLE 11.2 18 Miami Dolphins ATL 6.4
5 Chicago Bears BAL 11.1 19 Philadelphia Eagles CAR 6.1
6 Tennessee Titans IND 10.6 20 New England Patriots NYJ 5.8
7 Detroit Lions NO 10.5 21 Indianapolis Colts TEN 5.7
8 Green Bay Packers MIN 9.6 22 Jacksonville Jaguars LAR 5.3
9 New Orleans Saints DET 9.1 23 Cleveland Browns HOU 5.2
10 Los Angeles Rams JAX 9.0 24 Oakland Raiders LAC 5.2
11 New York Giants DEN 8.7 25 Minnesota Vikings GB 5.1
12 Atlanta Falcons MIA 8.4 26 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 4.7
13 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 7.9 27 Arizona Cardinals TB 3.9
14 Carolina Panthers PHI 6.7 28 Washington Redskins SAF 2.3

Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Kyle Rudolph

Seferian-Jenkins has 15 receptions in his three games and is a favorite option of Josh McCown. The Patriots are going to score plenty and push the Jets to keep up (or try). Part of the reason the Patriots defense allows so many Fantasy points is due to their offense forcing the issue. Of course, the defense also stinks so far and has the third highest FPAD against tight ends, so roll ASJ out there in PPR leagues – he takes a hit in Non-PPR.

Rudolph has struggled this year, and while part of it can be attributed to the quarterback volatility, he’s also being asked to block more. That has led to less targets and opportunities for Fantasy points. While he was able to score last week, this week is worrisome for his upside. The Packers have a 5.1 FPAD for tight ends, haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown yet and just 14 receptions for 142 yards this year. That’s with Jason Witten accounting for 8-61 himself.

Also Good: A.J. Derby – Start your tight ends against the Giants. There is just some risk, as Virgil Green could snake the touchdown.

Also Bad: Jared Cook – As always, good luck predicting his 3-4 good games, and this week looks to be one of the bad ones with the matchup.

Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Zach Miller, Delanie Walker, Eric Ebron (ugh), Martellus Bennett, Coby Fleener

 

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